PREDICT Prostate is an individualised prognostic model that provides long-term survival estimates for men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer ( ). In this study clinician estimates of survival were compared against model predictions and its potential value as a clinical tool was assessed. Prostate cancer (PCa) specialists were invited to participate in the study. 190 clinicians (63% urologists, 17% oncologists, 20% other) were randomised into two groups and shown 12 clinical vignettes through an online portal. Each group viewed opposing vignettes with clinical information alone, or alongside PREDICT Prostate estimates. 15-year clinician survival estimates were compared against model predictions and reported treatment recommendations with and without seeing PREDICT estimates were compared. 155 respondents (81.6%) reported counselling new PCa patients at least weekly. Clinician estimates of PCa-specific mortality exceeded PREDICT estimates in 10/12 vignettes. Their estimates for treatment survival benefit at 15 years were over-optimistic in every vignette, with mean clinician estimates more than 5-fold higher than PREDICT Prostate estimates. Concomitantly seeing PREDICT Prostate estimates led to significantly lower reported likelihoods of recommending radical treatment in 7/12 (58%) vignettes, particularly in older patients. These data suggest clinicians overestimate cancer-related mortality and radical treatment benefit. Using an individualised prognostic tool may help reduce overtreatment.

British journal of cancer. 2019 Sep 16 [Epub ahead of print]

David R Thurtle, Valerie Jenkins, Paul D Pharoah, Vincent J Gnanapragasam

Academic Urology Group, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. ., Sussex Health Outcomes Research & Education in Cancer, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK., Centre for Cancer Genetic Epidemiology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK., Academic Urology Group, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.